Probus Club of Warragul - Tarago Inc.

Post Office Box 514 WARRAGUL VICTORIA AUSTRALIA 3820 

 Probus club #1006155   incorporation number A0047473C

  

Our Shares Interest Group.  

     

Our Leader is,  Dianne P.

Or ring  Dianne P, 0438 314 143.

Our Shares Group old 2015 Video Link.  

All members are welcome to the next Shares Group on normally the first Friday in the month.  

We meet in the Drouin Library, 136 Princes Way, Drouin at 1.30 to 3.30 pm. Tea and Coffee provided. Di looks forward to seeing you there, There is ample parking behind the Library and you have to enter via the back door go across the floor to the Rest rooms down the Hallway and our room is on the right.

The meeting for November Shares Group was cancelled owing to most of the group going to Geelong.  However, now that the Geelong Caravan Trip has been cancelled owing to the very inclement weather, and the state of the grounds at the caravan park, I thought it would be a good idea to get a few thoughts together on the state of the stock market at the moment.

SHARES GROUP – NOVEMBER 2022

  IN LIEU OF A MEETING,  HERE’S SOME ASPECTS OF THE SHARE MARKET YOU MIGHT ENJOY READING

E. & O. E.

  DMARGE

James Booth – 1st November, 2022 - Best stocks to buy right now

ELDERS (ELD) $13.00 on 31/10/22, $2 bn market cap ($13.19 on 1/11/22)

Results are due 14th November, and a strong set of numbers are expected.  Management is targeting 5-10% growth.  They have a near-dominant market position, with a strong brand and disciplined track record.  Value under 24x PE with favourable agricultural conditions.

  Collins Foods (CKF), $9.40 on 31/10/22, $1.1 bn market cap ($9.74 later on 1/11/22)

The operator of KFC, Taco Bell and Sizzler reports first half net profit at the end of November.  There are inflationary pressions on food and wages for the company and rising interest rates and cost of living for customers.  KFC is a strong brand and the balance sheet remains unencumbered. 

  Credit Corp (CCP) - $18.58 on 31/10/22, $1.2 bn market cap ($18.74 on 1/11/22)

The seasoned and well-regarded management team are outperforming the market’s expectations.  At the recent AGM, the company upgraded their purchased debt ledger purchase guidance (a key driver of earnings) and demonstrated improving and impressive operational productivity.  A high-quality business, operating in an improving environment trading at near 10-year low valuations.

  28TH OCTOBER – IRON ORE MINERS SMASHED AS PRICES SLUMP TO LOWEST SINCE 2020.

Kerry Sun – 28th October, 2022 - iStock

There has been a sharp decline in global steel prices and steel prices in the US have fallen 50%.  Prices to trend lower in the December quarter and into 2023 as demand fails to pick up. There is a bleak economic outlook and challenges in China’s property market.  The rest of the world is beginning to show cracks in the demand for steel.

Fortescue (FMG) is leading towards the downside ($15.28 on 1/11/22 – Target $14.50) close to a one year low.  BHP (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) are also feeling the pain, both down almost 5%.  (BHP $38.12 on 1/11/22 with target $45)) (RIO $89.94 on 1/11/22 with target $95).

1st NOVEMBER – 2 ASX COMPANIES PRODUCING MINERALS THE WHOLE WORLD WANTS

FROM “Motley Fool”

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (LYC) - $8.52 on 1/11/22

This share is a ripe buy at the moment.  The share price has dropped more than 27% since early April, but the company delivered a strong fiscal year 2022 result.  Australia has an abundance of natural resources. You can visually see it on the ASX, where companies dominate in numbers and market capitalisation.  Lynas’ products are in hot demand and it is one of a handful of businesses producing rare earths outside China.

Syrah Resources ltd (SYR) - $2.46 on 1/11/22

This company is one of the biggest graphite producers listed on the ASX.  Shares for lithium producers have risen phenomenally in recent years, graphite is also another element that modern batteries require.

Graphite is a critical mineral for the transition to electric vehicles, so strong demand should persist for many years.  The company’s outlook is bright.  Syrah was recently selected for a US Department of Energy grant for us to US$220 million.  The grant will support the financing for a potential expansion of the Vidalia active anode material facility in the US State of Louisiana.  Syrah shares are up almost 26% YTD.

  RECESSIONS ARE USUALLY FOOD FOR SHAREMARKETS

Nothing scares investors more than talk of a recession.  However, history shows that economic contractions have been mostly GOOD for share prices and the Australian share market has actually increased during the majority of economic recessions in Australia.  In recent well-known recessions, share-markets ROSE during each of them.  These included Keating’s 1990-91 “recession we had to have”, the long 1981-1983 recession, the 1975 Whitlam inflation recession and the 1971-72 mining collapse recession.  Rebounds have always been faster and stronger than investors expect and they start when fear and uncertainty are greatest (when “there is blood in the streets”).

  WHY IS IT BETTER TO BE TOO EARLY THAN TOO LATE?

Tom Stevenson – Firstlinks – 19th October 2022

Tom Stevenson believes it is better to be early, even though human nature ensures that most of us have a tendency to come late to the party.  The fear of losing money in the short term, which is the destiny of the early investor is a powerful disincentive to pre-empt the market.  Far easier to wait for confirmatory signals from the market and/or the economy before we take the plunge.  Easier but costly.

Many investors sit on the sidelines while others enjoy the recovery.  If you had taken the pain of an initial loss, you would have been in at the bottom and sitting comfortably as the rally gathered pace. This may look eccentric in which will probably turn out to be the worst year for shares since the Financial Crisis and the worst for Balanced Funds, perhaps since the 1960’s.  However, bonds are finally offering yields which look interesting, and investors can lock in a decent yield.  Time to grit your teeth and start to prepare for the upturn, even if it hurts in the short term.

THE DANGER IN LABOR’S NEW FRANKING CREDIT PROPOSAL

Matthew Collins – 12th October, 2022 – Firstlinks

We all remember the 2019 franking credit proposals that contributed materially to the Labor Party’s election loss and helped to deliver Scott Morrison’s “miracle”.  A major problem with that proposal was that it had many unintended consequences.  The same can be said for Labor’s new proposal to stop the payment of franked dividends funded by raising capital.

An example quoted in the press in recent weeks is the November 2019 dividend paid by Westpac.  A franked dividend of 80 cents was issued on the same day that the bank announced a $2.5 billion capital raising.  The funds from the capital raising were received prior to the dividend being paid.  But under the Government proposal a dividend payment must be unfranked if funded from a capital raising, even if the company has franking credits available for distribution.  Will Westpac be caught by this proposal, which is back-dated to 2016?  The answer is “possibly”.  There are some arguments for and against.  What is clear, however, is if they didn’t pay the dividend, then the capital raising could have been smaller.   Most would agree that Westpac did nothing wrong.  There should be nothing wrong with a company raising capital to strengthen their balance sheet.  There also should be nothing wrong with a company paying retained profits to shareholders as fully franked dividends.

Giving the Tax Office the discretion to question the motives of directors is likely to result in worse outcomes as decisions are made to meet legislative requirements, instead of meeting the interests of the business and shareholders.

 

 COCHLEAR TURNS TO UNTAPPED ASIAN MARKETS

The Age – 30th October, 2022 – Michael Smith

With Covid-19 travel restrictions now lifted throughout Asia except for China Cochlear executives are back travelling where they are working with local government and patient advocacy groups to raise awareness about the need to treat hearing loss. The President for Asia-Pacific, Anthony Bishop said that developed markets in Asia with ageing populations were key markets for the company.

 

MACQUARIE RIDING HIGH AMID VOLATILITY

The Age – 30th October, 2022 – Chanticleer

Macquarie Group has once again shown why its diversity of businesses can provide share-holders with protection in uncertain times while simultaneously building the financial firepower to jump on growth opportunities.  Macquarie had a 13% increase in the interim profit to $2.3 bn but this does not give an accurate measure of the strong performances of the commodities and global markets division, the banking and financial services division and Macquarie Asset Management.
The performance of these three divisions over the remaining five months of this financial year (to March 31) will have a large bearing on whether Macquarie can beat the consensus full-year profit forecast of $4.2 bn.  (The mind boggles!)  The CEO, Shemara Wikramanayake, said that the uncertainty in the world meant it was prudent to hold high levels of liquidity. Macquarie has $12 bn in capital beyond its regulatory requirement.

  NEXT MEETING of the SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, December 2nd, 2022  

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, OCTOBER 7th, 2022

 Chaired by Dianne P, there were 15 members present and 6 apologies.  Unfortunately, Middels had double-booked the Function Room and it was a little hard to hear everyone because of the chatting of the other group.  We have made overtures to Middels and trust that this will not happen again.

The main topic of conversation was property – buying houses for rental purposes and also commercial properties.  From the information gathered, it is usually better to hold properties for some time to realise the capital gain.  The rent received from these assets (usually 3% to 4% of the cost) is most often spent upon refurbishment, rates, insurance, etc.

It was agreed that holding shares is better for liquidity, but at the present time, R.E.I.T.’s are not doing well – a buy option??  Cromwell (CMW) as a world-wide property ASX company and Waypoint (WPR) were also discussed.

One of the members brought other interesting matters to the table, e.g.: Eventbrite, the American company which the Baw Baw Shire uses for ticket purchases, and Entain, a company based in London, which considers Australia a wide-open market to expand the company’s gambling activities.

The next meeting, November 4th at Middels has been cancelled because many of the attendees will be at Geelong.  If desired, we could have an informal Shares Meeting there, but it’s possible that we’ll be having such a good time, we’ll forget all about it!

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2nd 2022

Dianne P chaired the meeting, which started at 9.30 a.m. with a coffee.  First things first.  13 of us began our meeting at 10 a.m. with the Phantom Portfolio, after noting the 11 apologies. The total has improved by $1,000 but is still mostly in the RED.  At the moment, Gary Mack is ahead with his Cokal Ltd (CKA) choice.  What does this company do, I hear you ask?  This company extracts coking coal in Kalimantan, Indonesia. 

Second things next:  Apologies to all members of the meeting.  The main topic of conversation was Food Staples together with Food, Beverage & Tobacco Companies, and the fact that Australia has had trouble holding onto these companies.  For example: Tassal Group Limited is in the process of a takeover by a Canadian company, Cooke Aquaculture.    We discussed the No. 1 company, Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW).  Now, my Google research indicated Woolworths Holdings Limited of South Africa had a stake in Woolworths Group Ltd.   I have done some more work (via Google), and the South African Woolworths Holdings Ltd owns Country Road and David Jones, but NOT Big W (or indeed the supermarket chain).  WOW is an all-Australian owned company. So, what I learnt in this exercise was check, check and check again.  I may add that the discussion on all the food stocks listed was spirited and very interesting.

The meeting continued with ANZ’s takeover of Suncorp which, although agreed to by Suncorp, still has to be passed by the A.C.C.C.

All in all, a great morning’s think tank.  Three of us stayed for lunch.

Next Meeting:   Friday, 7th October, 2022.  9.30 a.m. for coffee and 10.00 a.m. meeting at Middels in Drouin.

Dianne P.

 

 

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, AUGUST 5st 2022  

With Di P away in Queensland I was charged with chairing the 20 members of the Shares Group gathered at Middel's in Drouin on 5th August. With our crystal balls all polished we were keen to take a deep dive into our Hydrogen future. The intent was to try to find which of the early stage companies involved in this burgeoning  industry have investment metrics worth putting money into now.

The consensus  opinion at the end of the meeting seemed to be, that while it was all very interesting as well as very complex, it is probably something for a younger cohort to invest in given any likely returns are still a long way down the track. I think we were all surprised though, at how much progress is being made in the quest to decarbonize the energy forms that will become common place in the future.

Di will be back to chair next month’s meeting on 2nd September.

 

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, JULY 1st 2022

Hold on – it’s going to be a bumpy ride” was a headline in the paper recently and the discussion at July’s Share Club meeting concentrated on this premise.  We have had 13-14 years of a bull market so a bear market was to be expected.  We discussed Warren Buffet’s “Bear Market Maneuvers” and the downward trend in the share market on the ASX.  This downward trend was markedly shown by all the red in our Phantom portfolios.  Congratulations to John H for gaining the privilege of having the trophy on his shelf for the next six months because his guess was the closest to the ASX 200 on 30th June.  Congratulations also to Keith P for winning the chockies because his “in the black” Phantom choice was the best in the market on 30th June.  Everyone else, but one, was in the red.  

The presentation of the All Ords trophy by President Rob and Guest speaker organiser Diaane.

Dianne P

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, June 3rd 2022

After enjoying a coffee and chat we began our meeting with quite a few apologies. A warm welcome is extended to our newest members, Bev M and Alan H. John H then presented the Phantom Portfolio and advised that John C was the leader, having made over $200 on his “investment”.  A very lively discussion then ensued regarding investing in property, both real estate and EFT’s/REIT’s.  We discussed who owns the Australian outback. Pastoral areas are 42.2% Australian owned, 5.3% foreign owned and 53.3% unknown.  (26.6% is owned by Indigenous peoples with exclusive native title and 54.17% has non-exclusive native title).  We discussed Morningstar’s list of shares to buy where there was “blood in the streets” – namely, those which had gone down a lot lately.  Everyone with an interest in the share market is welcome to the next Shares Group on Friday, July 1st 2022.  We meet in the Function Room at Middels, Princes Way, Drouin at 9.30 am for coffee and meeting at 10 a.m.

Dianne P.

 

Shares Group 4th March 2022.

 After chatting over coffee at Middels, our meeting started, as usual, with the Phantom Portfolio.  Half of the group were very glad it was phantom, as the share market had tumbled upon the news of the war in Ukraine. Naturally, we discussed what effect the war in the Ukraine would have on the stock market as “fear or uncertainty about what will happen next on the ground in Ukraine is justifiably sending shivers through global financial markets”, to quote The Age.  The discussion was vibrant as we continued through the agenda, which included the property market as well as various shares and whether they would be a good buy or not.  It has been decided to cancel our April meeting as most of the group will be on holiday at Moama.

Shares Group 4th February 2022 real meeting .

Meeting  at Middels Tapas restaurant Main St. Drouin. Actual meeting starts at 10 AM please come early to purchase your Coffee. 

On Friday, 4th February, 21 happy members met at Middels to talk about investing. After a chat over coffee, we began by looking at our Phantom Portfolio which is being led by Gary Mc. Just watch it Gary, Rob S isn’t far behind! We then enjoyed a quiz from the ASX website regarding Exchange Traded Funds, discussion on China and other interesting issues with regard to the financial market, not to mention what is going on around Warragul and Drouin. Our next meeting is on Friday, 4th March at Middels Restaurant at 9.30 for coffee with meeting at 10.00. All members are welcome

Serious Financial discussions.

Shares Group 7th January 2022 real meeting .

Due to illness meeting cancelled.

 Rob J and Keith P correctly predicted the all ordinaries index level at end of last year and the trophy was presented to them. The next meeting is at Middells, Drouin, 9.30am 4th February. Scrabble group has largely been in recess because of Covid.

Rob J and Keith P holding the Crystal Ball as they were joint winners of the All Ordinaries prediction.

Shares Group 3rd December 2021 real meeting .

 Dianne P chaired the meeting and about twenty of us started with a coffee, as we could gather at Middels Tapas restaurant Main St. Drouin. There was a pre-meeting chat that buzzed – a great feeling. Our meeting proper began at 10 a.m. with John H presenting the Phantom Portfolio. Barbara W was streets ahead of the rest of us with her choice of Playside Studios Ltd. The meeting continued with a deep dive into five stocks and which one of the five would be a BUY. Some excellent conversations ensued. We all enjoyed the meeting immensely and everyone was engaged. Dianne P Contact John Hill on 5625 4049 shares@probuswarragultarago.org.au 

 

Shares Group 5th November 2021 virtual meeting

The Shares Group meeting on Guy Fawkes day (5th November) was held on zoom, without any fireworks. Many thanks to Graham H for organizing the zoom thing again.

We had 13 members logged on for the meeting with apologies from Joan L and Graham H.

The decision was taken to try to get back to face to face meetings. From next month we will be back at Middels where we can get a real cup of coffee and enjoy a more inclusive dialogue. Those attending will need to Q.R. code or sign in and have a double vaccination certificate.

Net Zero by 2050 created a lively discussion with a 2019 graph presented showing Australia is the third largest G.H.G. emitter on a per capita basis at 16.3 tonnes per person per annum, down considerably from several years ago when we held first place at 27.3 tonnes. We explored the opportunities in electrifying everything and concluded it’s going to be very difficult to switch from coal to renewables without either building nuclear base load capacity or increasing gas dispatch able generation neither of which seem to be appealing from an investment perspective.

Of interest in the companies review section was a company called Camplify who seem to be a sort of Air BnB for R.V. (Recreational Vehicles) owners. We looked at this company back in August when they were selling for about $1.40 a share what piqued our interest again is the fact they are now above $4.00. Sadly none of the group own any!

Di P will Chair the next meeting on 3rd  December, hopefully, at Middels Tapas restaurant Main St. Drouin commencing at 10:00am but if you want a cup of coffee try to be there by around 9:30. All Welcome, contact Di on 0438 314 143 if your not on the shares group email list and she will make sure you receive an agenda.

John H,

Meeting Chair

 

 

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, October 1st, 2021

 Thanks once again to Graham H for coordinating our Zoom meeting and allowing share group members to communicate with each other again. On Friday October 1st the share group was able to meet for another lively and interesting meeting. John H again led us through the phantom Portfolio. Many members shared a wide range of views on a variety of topics. Due to continuing uncertainty with Covid-19 it was decided to again meet via Zoom for the next meeting in November. All members are very welcome to attend these very informative meetings where a broad range of issues are discussed. The November meeting will be held on Friday, 5th November and be chaired by John H. At the present time, the plan is to meet from 9.45 a.m. on Zoom, with the meeting starting at 10a.m.. Contact John H on 5625 4049 shares@probuswarragultarago.org.au 

The 16 people at the Shares Group Meeting.

SHARES GROUP – FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 3rd, 2021

Because of the continuing lockdown, coffee at Middels was off the cards for our Share Group Meeting this month.  The meeting was chaired by Di P and we met via Zoom – and thanks so much to Graham H for his exceptional goodwill at hosting the meeting.  Graham was so high tech this month that the group was able to have a look at charts of some of the shares discussed.  Amazing.  Zoom works very well and we had a good discussion. 

For the first time, Di P was the leader in the Phantom portfolio, which pleased her mightily.  The topics ranged from the current buy backs of the big banks and Woolworths to the many takeovers (of which Canada, and not China, is a big player).  We also discussed the $400m fraud where Westpac and two other banks have only recovered $100 m.  It was considered that this amount of loss was chicken feed in proportion to the massive billion-dollar profits made by the banks.

When questioned, the group thought, generally, that there will be a downturn – the question is:  when?   If you have any idea, please let us know.

After a chat about what is happening in Warragul, and how sad it is that the beautiful organic vegetable farm in Butlers Track will be eventually under housing (sooner rather than later), the meeting closed with hope that maybe our next meeting will be face to face.

 

Some of the attendees at the meeting.

Graham H, Shared his screen to everyone showing the website about BHP.

Graham H, Shared his screen to everyone showing the website about http://reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/

Graham H, Shared his screen to everyone showing the website about http://reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/

Graham H, Shared his screen to everyone showing the website about   https://www.aemo.com.au/

  Another interesting power website link https://www.energymatters.com.au/energy-efficiency/electricity-demand-price/ 

 

 

NEXT MEETING.

The October Meeting of the Share Group will be held on 

Friday, 1st October, when Rob S will be in the chair.  At 

the present time, the plan is to meet from 9.45 a.m. on 

Zoom, with the meeting starting at 10 a.m..  A link will be 

forwarded toward the end of September.   Di P.

Meeting held Friday 4th June at 10am (9:30am for coffee)

 

at Middel's Drouin

Chairperson:            Rob S 

Shares Group Report. - Rob S.

  Twenty one members attended our meeting at Middel's on 4 June.

John H once again led the discussion on our Phantom Portfolio although most of our participants are not doing so well. Thanks again John for your great work.

  As usual there was lively conversation on many issues not only on the share market All members are welcome to come along you don’t have to know anything about shares to take an active interest in proceedings

  Our leader each month will be on a rotating roster At present we have 4 people on the roster and hopefully there will be some more in the future.

 

 

Friday April 16 2021, Chair person will be, Dianne P. with the usual Agenda and reports to be covered. meeting at 

Middel's Drouin

 

 Contact John H on 5625 4049 or finance@probuswarragultarago.org.au 

 

Friday March 5 2021, Actual meeting at Middel's Drouin.

 

Eight of the group met yesterday with eleven apologies, most of whom are sunbaking on the beach at Merimbula. 

 

The consensus was that the Middel's venue filled our requirements (plenty of room, not too noisy and a decent cup of coffee) for future meetings.  The venue has been booked for the 16th April subject to confirmation by Di  the scheduled chair for the next meeting.  

 

Some members may find it difficult driving to Drouin so some offers on car pooling for those coming from Warragul (which is pretty much everyone except me) would be nice.

 

John H.

 

Friday February 5 2021, Actual meeting.

 

The shares group ZOOM meeting was held on Friday 5th of February, with 16 members in attendance. Rob S was 

this month’s chairperson. Rob put together an interesting number of agenda topics for the group to discuss.

 

Notably:

        Ongoing effects of COVID on portfolios including outlook for 2021.  Long term effects of massive government debt.

 

        The US election and President Biden’s ambitious agenda.

 

        A review of each member’s Phantom Portfolio stock selection for the year. The preferred stocks this year are mining, medical and tech stocks.

 

The first in person group meeting is to be held on: Friday 5thMarch 2021.

 

Venue: Middels Tapas Bar and Restaurant, 94 Princes Hwy Drouin.  

Time: 10:00 am          John H- Chairperson

 

If you would like to attend please contact John on 5625 4049 Email: johnhill1950@hotmail.com  

 

 

Next ZOOM meeting will be Friday 8th of January at 10:00 am.  Everyone is welcome to join in so please contact Graham Hardie (0400 068 402) for an invitation and the link to the meeting.

DECEMBER 2020

The ZOOM meeting of the shares group was held on Friday 4th of December with 13 members in attendance.

 

John H reported on the Phantom Portfolio that has shown a strong recovery in the past few weeks with the ASX out performing all expectations and in the midst of a bull run. As of the 2/12/2020 our overall profit/loss is now $160.97.

 

Best performing stock pick this month was Ivan G and Rob J with their selection of Pilbara Mining.

 

Agenda topics for discussion were - ‘What’s in store for 2021’

 

NOVEMBER 2020

Hello Fellow Shares Group Members,
Well what a year we have had! 

Or as the Mazda promotion theme says its 'ZOOM ZOOM ZOOM' for the foreseeable future. 

With this in mind it is time to put in place a plan for our group to continue in 2021.

As you know I am standing aside as coordinator of our group next year to concentrate on matters close to home, or should I say the pursuit of a new one. 

I have spoken to both Dianne P and John H about their availability for 2021. John, is happy to continue maintaining the Phantom Portfolio for us. Dianne is happy to stand in from time to time as coordinator too.

However this should not been seen as a permanent; both have other commitments to consider as I'm sure all of us do. 

I have a suggestion I would like to put to everyone! 

That is we have a roster for each month of the year. In other words each member will be allocated a month of the year to draft an agenda for that months ZOOM meeting., there are about 12 of us who regularly attend the ZOOM meetings so this would be an easy way of sharing the load. I'm sure we all agree that we love our discussion group and want it to continue..

Please let me know what you think of this idea?

Stay safe

Joan

Joan L

JULY 2020

Our Shares meetings will be continuing Virtually using Zoom, if you have not recieved an email Invitation please contact Joan.

REPORT:

  A very successful  ZOOM, shares group meeting was held last Friday, with fifteen of our members logged on via ZOOM.

  Special thank you to Graham Hardie, as coordinator of ZOOM.

  I would like to thank Peter Trewern, for helping  those who needed assistance with setting up ZOOM on their computer /device.

  Thank you too John Hill, who volunteered to update the phantom portfolio spreadsheet data; a time consuming task especially at the end of the financial year.

 

  • Phantom Portfolio Profit/Loss - 30 June 2020 -  Loss =  $5,411.81 
  • Best stock selection performance: Brian Kemp with Sarascen Minerals. 
  • ALL ORD'S at the close 30 June 2020 =  6001.30
  • Winner of the ALL ORD'S prediction to 30 June is Greg Bland with 6666  Well done ! 

  Greg, this means you will have your name emblazoned on the Shares Group Trophy.

Winner 30 June 2020.

  What a difference six month can make, back in January the share market was booming and  the All Ord's was reaching giddy new heights, as were the 30 June 2020 predictions, as high as 

7415. Wow!

Alas that was before the dreaded COVID-19 virus struck. 

  Now it's that time again to have yet another stab in the dark with your prediction for 31 December 2020.

  Please email me your prediction so I can log it on our All Ord's Index by the end of July 2020.

  What will the wheel of fortune, have in store for the second half of the  year?

 

 

Due to the Covid19 Virus, the Courthouse will be closed, all Shares Group meetings will be suspended until further notice. Watch out for reqular emails from Joan.

Meetings are were held at the Court House 1st First Friday of the month.

PLEASE NOTE. Because of the crowded conditions at the Courthouse, Joan would like to be told if you wish to attend. Please arrive early and have your Coffee in the Cafe prior to the meeting.

They discuss how to invest money on the Stock Exchange, but will be dealing in phantom shares, NOT REAL shares.

You are welcome to visit anytime, but if you really wish to get involved go on the first of July that is when every ones

 phantom shares are refreshed.

3 January 2020.

Probus Shares Group Report

  The first meeting of the  Probus Club of Warragul - Tarago for 2020, was held at The Courthouse on Friday 3rd of January with 15 members in attendance. 

Phantom portfolio:

  The Phantom portfolio finished the year to Tuesday 31 of December in profit $6,177.00.  The outstanding stock of the year by a close whisker was Fortescue Metals, with a profit of $1,486.00 for both John Soutar and Ron Cawley as their share selection for the year.

 

Presentation of Chocolates: John and Ron

The new Phantom portfolio for 2020 begins with everyone receiving a fresh $1,000.00 phantom dollars and a share selection of their choice. For those who have not already done so please email me your new share selection along with the ASX Code ASAP.

All Ord’s  Index Winner:

  The winner of the All Ord’s prediction to 31December 2019 is  

Diane Dalton, with 6834.

Diane will be custodian of our perpetual trophy until the 30th of June 2020. Congratulations ‘Diane’

Presentation of Trophy to Diane Dalton

Topics:

The year ahead and what to expect with Brexit, Trump and US/China trade deals just a few of the looming unknowns to be discussed.

  THE NEXT MEETING OF THE PROBUS SHARES GROUP FRIDAY 7TH OF FEBRUARY 2020.

The Courthouse, Smith street, Warragul at 10:00 am

 

2 August 2019.

15 attended the last meeting at The Courthouse. The phantom portfolio is $5225.88 in profit, with Peter S  the leader. Discussions included thoughts about the dramatic ASX movement, gold price, US vs. China and the similarities in looks between Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. All welcome to our meeting on Friday September 6 at The Courthouse.

5 July 2019.

'The winner of the All Ord's to 30 June 2019 is Tom McKenzie' 

  Tom will be custodian of the biannual winners trophy until 31 December 2019.

 

16 January 2019.

Presentation of the Crystal Ball

7 July 2018. 

There were 20 members at the last Shares Group Meeting.  The phantom portfolio finished the year in the red to the tune of $2200.  Just as well it was not real.  Chris O'B won the "Crystal" Ball Trophy for predicting the All Ords would finish at 6290.  The actual figure was 6289.70.  Well done, Chris!

 

2 February 2018.

There were 22 members at the last Shares Group Meeting on February 2.

New shares portfolios were set up and new predictions taken for the All Ords prediction for June. We look forward to another interesting but bumpy(?) year ahead for the stock market. All are welcome to come to the next meeting on March 2.

 

5 January 2018. There where 23 members at our Shares Group Meeting on Friday 5th of January, the largest gathering yet! 

The All Ord's Winner 30 December 2017 is Rob J, at 6100 was the closest at the close of business on the 29th of December 2017 at 6167.

  Best performing phantom portfolio share was Barbara W's selection of  Kidman Resources Ltd. 

  Well done to both Rob and Barbara, we look forward to another interested year ahead for the stock market.  

After the above presentations John C did a presentation about Bitcoin.         

    7 July 2017.

Probus Club of Warragul - Tarago, Shares Group winner of the All Ord's predictions ending of the financial year 30 June 2017 is John Rogers.

At 5760 was only 4 points off the close at 30 June 2017 at 5764

Well done John!

John, accepting his award at the Probus Club of Warragul, General Meeting on 19th of July 2017.

7  January 2017,

Photo is of Jan M, receiving the All Ords trophy from Gary Mack, for being the winner of the closest prediction of the All Ords Close as of the 31 December.

4 November 2016.

After many years of hard work, Geoff has handed the leadership over to Joan L. 

We must thank Barbara and Geoff for all of the hard work that they put in. 

We also Welcome Joan.

5 August 2016

At our Shares Group meeting yesterday we were advised that the Court House would be closed for renovations at the time of our September meeting.

We decided to hold the September meeting at Barbara and Geoff's home at the usual time of 10.00 am on Friday 2 September 2016.

1 July 2016

At this meeting as usual it was decided to start Predictions of again. Jan M won the Crystal ball for the coming year. Because he predictions were the best.

21 January 2016

Predictions for the level of the ASX All Ordinaries Index

Each six months the members of the Shares Interest Group make predictions regarding the level of the ASX All Ordinaries Index at 30 June and 31 December.
The member who can most accurately predict the level of the Index each half year is rewarded with the beautifully crafted Ball with Windows of Opportunity made by Graham. The suitably engraved trophy is held for the ensuing six months.

At 31 December 2015 Pam L made the closest prediction. She was presented with the Trophy at the Probus Club meeting on 20 January 2016.

17 November 2015,

Warragul Probus have invited us to join them in a visit to Ridley Corporation (Baristoc) 70 to 80 Bald Hill road Pakenham

2 October 2015,

New Phantom port folio, only 1 stock in profit. Joan L she has chosen Bellamy's Australia Limited.

19 August 2015,

Probus Shares Group Report to August 2015 Meeting
Our August meeting was another well attended meeting
One of the highlights was Joan L was pronounced the winner of the current 
Phantom Portfolio. Her initial investment in 
Capilano honey. had increased 2 1/2 times. We commenced a new 
Phantom Portfolio and those present made their selections.
Estimates were also made for the level the All  Ordinaries at 31/12/2015
Some advance notice for our October meeting. Although it falls on Daniel Andrews pre-Grand Final public holiday we are still planning to meet on it.


15 July 2015, Bob S has won by guessing the closest to the All Ords $.

Joan L has the winning shares with Capilano honey.

10 April 2015. Report on Visit to Computershare

An enjoyable coach trip to Abbotsford to view the operations of Computershare was undertaken by members of our Club in company with the Warragul Probus Club Investment Group.

Computershare which is Australia’s largest Share Registry operates in the historic, former "Yarra Falls" Mills building overlooking the Yarra River.

On arrival the group was taken to morning tea, followed by a presentation on the breadth of Computershare’s operations which extend to over 20 countries.

We were conducted in small groups to view the Company’s activities which take place over vast floors of open plan areas containing work stations, each with a computer screen.

Our more "mature" group observed that most of the employees were young and "computer savvy." We were impressed with the security arrangements in their premises and the measures taken to secure their systems.

After lunch in the company canteen we returned to Warragul, following an interesting morning.

Geoff.

2 Jan 2015,  report, Phantom portfolio is just in the red, John S made the closest prediction of the  all ordinaries and was presented with the Crystal ball for 6 months

 

16 Jul 2014,   report. At a well attended July meeting of the Group a wide range of issues pertaining to the Share Market were discussed.

Two of the highlights of the meeting were the outcomes of the most successful investor in the Phantom Share Portfolio and the most accurate predictor of the level of the All Ordinaries Index at 30 June 2014.

Chris O’B with her stock of Bega Cheese was the leader in the Phantom Portfolio at 30 June 2014.  This Phantom Portfolio had been operating for the last two years.  A new Phantom will commence at the next meeting in August when members will submit their stock selections.

In July 2013 members made predictions regarding the level of the All Ordinaries Index at 31 December 2013 and 30 June 2014. Keith W made the closest prediction for 30/6/2014 and he now holds the “Crystal Ball with Windows of Opportunity” trophy beautifully crafted by Graham H. At the August meeting members will also be making their predictions for the Index for the end of December and June next.

 

Graham H, made and donated a very impressive Wooden (Crystal) Ball. I only sighted it at a distance some people were lucky enough to even handle it. But I am told that it is very impressive. Geoff Peter S Graeme Crystal Ball.jpg (157045 bytes) 

This ball is being used as a perpetual trophy for correctly estimating where the all ordinaries will finish at the end of a time period.

The current winner of this trophy is Barbara Willingham.

Crystal Ball.jpg (122117 bytes)

24 Aug 2011,  
eighteen members of our Shares group travelled by train to Melbourne to attend a financial presentation by an economist - Tony Farnham "Are the Hard Times Coming or Are the Soft Times Going?" He left us with the impression that it's not all doom and gloom. This presentation was followed by a light luncheon of sandwiches and drinks. Then Stephen Blackhall spoke. He is an expert in Superannuation and particularly Self-Managed Super Funds. He presented some examples re the advantages of superannuation and briefly covered the legislation of requirements in relation to Self-Managed Super Funds.
The weather was great and some members took the advantage to wander around the shops of the CBD. A good time was had by all.
Many thanks to Alan and Joan Scarlett who made the contact with Patersons for us and for Geoff Willingham who made the arrangements for this outing.
If any Probus members are interested in financial matters and , in particular, the share market: the group meets at the Courthouse on the first Friday of each month at 10 am. You would be most welcome.
Regards,
Keith W